Revenue Projections

The game industry is competitive, and we’ve taken a very conservative approach to Warp revenue projections to ensure we progress on a robust footing.

Typically, the industry success rate for games ranges between 10-20%, and as a result, our projections generally factor a conservative 10% success rate. With a laser focus on publishing quality, innovative games, we expect to have up to 5 games published by Q4 2025, with ambitions for Warp to be revenue positive by Q1 2026.

Our revenues from Warp Publishing and Warp Catalyst (independent of node sale revenue) are projected in the following table, based on several conservative assumptions:

• Average success rate = 10% (low)

• Average revenue for successful games = $100k /month (low)

• Average revenue share = 25% (low)

• Estimated EBITDA = 30% revenue (reasonable)

• Catalyst revenue only includes platform fees (we have significant SaaS demand)

• Company size and reputation has no impact on success rate or revenue (it does)

Based on our conservative estimates, EBITDA margins are expected to scale from $247.5k in 2026 to $2.89m in 2029, with a five-year EBITDA of just under $6m. This provides a significant opportunity for growth in the Warp ecosystem and significant distribution of value to WARP early investors.

Best, Mid, Conservative estimates are based on revenue estimates with an average game success rate of 20%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

The reality?

The Warp team has been here before. We know well that one major title can produce in excess of $200k revenue per day. With a 20% revenue share, a single game could produce Warp revenue of $14.6m per annum, $4.4m EBITDA.